Les effets de l’équilibre budgétaire et du transfert canadien en santé sur les finances publiques du Québec

Nicholas-James Clavet, Guy Lacroix, Pierre-Carl Michaud and Alexandre Parent

Cahiers de recherche from Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques

Abstract: Using a simulation tool, we analyze four scenarios that allow to us to measure the effects over 20 years of 1) maintaining the budget balance for 4 years, and 2) a growth in the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) at its historical pace. In the reference scenario, which assumes structural expenditure growth rates consistent with the pre-budgetary rigour period and a CHT increasing at a slower pace than in the past, Quebec public expenditures should increase by G$166.6 by 2035, while revenue will only increase by G$106. Furthermore, a CHT growing at 6% annually would not be enough to meet budget balance and public debt objectives. Additional efforts to limit spending or enhance revenue will be required to meet these targets.

Keywords: Finances publiques; Québec; équilibre budgétaire; transfert canadien en santé. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H50 H60 J18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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