Trends in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric methane

Gang Liu, Lu Shen, Philippe Ciais, Xin Lin, Didier Hauglustaine, Xin Lan, Alexander J. Turner, Yi Xi, Yu Zhu and Shushi Peng ()
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Gang Liu: Peking University
Lu Shen: Peking University
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay
Xin Lin: Université Paris-Saclay
Didier Hauglustaine: Université Paris-Saclay
Xin Lan: University of Colorado Boulder
Alexander J. Turner: University of Washington
Yi Xi: Université Paris-Saclay
Yu Zhu: Peking University
Shushi Peng: Peking University

Nature, 2025, vol. 641, issue 8063, 660-665

Abstract: Abstract Methane is an important greenhouse gas1 and its atmospheric concentration has almost tripled since pre-industrial times2–4. Atmospheric methane mixing ratios vary seasonally, with the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) having decreased in northern high latitudes and increased in the subtropics and tropics since the 1980s5,6. These opposing SCA trends can help understanding of long-term changes in the global methane budget, as methane emissions and sinks have opposing effects on the SCA5. However, trends in the methane SCA have not yet been explored in detail5,6. Here we use a suite of atmospheric transport model simulations and attribute the observed trends in the seasonal amplitude of methane to changes in emissions and the atmospheric sink from reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). We find that the decreasing amplitude in the northern high latitudes is mainly caused by an increase in natural emissions (such as wetlands) owing to a warmer climate, adding evidence to previous studies suggesting a positive climate feedback7–9. In contrast, the enhanced methane amplitude in the subtropics and tropics is mainly attributed to strengthened OH oxidation. Our results provide independent evidence for an increase in tropospheric OH concentration10,11 of 10 ± 1% since 1984, which together with an increasing atmospheric methane concentration suggests a 21 ± 1% increase in the atmospheric methane sink.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08900-8

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