Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023

Matthew H. England (), Zhi Li, Maurice F. Huguenin, Andrew E. Kiss, Alex Sen Gupta, Ryan M. Holmes and Stefan Rahmstorf
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Matthew H. England: University of New South Wales
Zhi Li: University of New South Wales
Maurice F. Huguenin: University of New South Wales
Andrew E. Kiss: Australian National University
Alex Sen Gupta: University of New South Wales
Ryan M. Holmes: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Stefan Rahmstorf: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nature, 2025, vol. 642, issue 8068, 636-643

Abstract: Abstract North Atlantic Ocean circulation and temperature patterns profoundly influence global and regional climate across all timescales, from synoptic1 to seasonal2–4, decadal5, multidecadal6,7 and beyond8,9. During 2023, an extreme and near-basin-scale marine heatwave developed during Northern Hemisphere summer, peaking in July. The warming spread across virtually all regions of the North Atlantic, including the subpolar ocean, where a cooling trend over the past 50–100 years has been linked to a slowdown in the meridional overturning circulation10,11. Yet the mechanisms that led to this exceptional surface ocean warming remain unclear. Here we use observationally constrained atmospheric reanalyses alongside ocean observations and model simulations to show that air–sea heat fluxes acting on an extremely shallow surface mixed layer, rather than anomalous ocean heat transport, were responsible for this extreme ocean warming event. The dominant driver is shown to be anomalously weak winds leading to strongly shoaling (shallowing) mixed layers, resulting in a rapid temperature increase in a shallow surface layer of the North Atlantic. Furthermore, solar radiation anomalies made regional-scale warming contributions in locations that approximately correspond to some of the region’s main shipping lanes, suggesting that reduced sulfate emissions could also have played a localized role. With a trend towards shallower mixed layers observed over recent decades, and projections that this will continue into the future, the severity of North Atlantic marine heatwaves is set to worsen.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08903-5

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