Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation

Andrew Hultgren (), Tamma Carleton, Michael Delgado, Diana R. Gergel, Michael Greenstone, Trevor Houser, Solomon Hsiang (), Amir Jina, Robert E. Kopp, Steven B. Malevich, Kelly E. McCusker, Terin Mayer, Ishan Nath, James Rising, Ashwin Rode and Jiacan Yuan
Additional contact information
Andrew Hultgren: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Tamma Carleton: University of California, Berkeley
Michael Delgado: Rhodium Group
Diana R. Gergel: BlackRock
Michael Greenstone: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Trevor Houser: Rhodium Group
Solomon Hsiang: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Amir Jina: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Robert E. Kopp: Rutgers University
Steven B. Malevich: Rhodium Group
Kelly E. McCusker: Rhodium Group
Terin Mayer: University of Minnesota
Ishan Nath: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
James Rising: University of Delaware
Ashwin Rode: The University of Chicago
Jiacan Yuan: Fudan University

Nature, 2025, vol. 642, issue 8068, 644-652

Abstract: Abstract Climate change threatens global food systems1, but the extent to which adaptation will reduce losses remains unknown and controversial2. Even within the well-studied context of US agriculture, some analyses argue that adaptation will be widespread and climate damages small3,4, whereas others conclude that adaptation will be limited and losses severe5,6. Scenario-based analyses indicate that adaptation should have notable consequences on global agricultural productivity7–9, but there has been no systematic study of how extensively real-world producers actually adapt at the global scale. Here we empirically estimate the impact of global producer adaptations using longitudinal data on six staple crops spanning 12,658 regions, capturing two-thirds of global crop calories. We estimate that global production declines 5.5 × 1014 kcal annually per 1 °C global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise (120 kcal per person per day or 4.4% of recommended consumption per 1 °C; P

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09085-w Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:642:y:2025:i:8068:d:10.1038_s41586-025-09085-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09085-w

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().