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The Persuasive Effects of Direct Mail: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Alan Gerber, Daniel Kessler and Marc Meredith

No 14206, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: During the contest for Kansas attorney general in 2006, an organization sent out 6 pieces of mail criticizing the incumbent's conduct in office. We exploit a discontinuity in the rule used to select which households received the mailings to identify the causal effect of mail on vote choice and voter turnout. We find these mailings had both a statistically and politically significant effect on the challenger's vote share. Our estimates suggest that a ten percentage point increase in the amount of mail sent to a precinct increased the challenger's vote share by approximately three percentage points. Furthermore, our results suggest that the mechanism for this increase was persuasion rather than mobilization.

JEL-codes: D70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-07
Note: PE POL
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published as Alan S. Gerber & Daniel P. Kessler & Marc Meredith, 2011. "The Persuasive Effects of Direct Mail: A Regression Discontinuity Based Approach," The Journal of Politics, vol 73(1), pages 140-155.

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