Expectations Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior

Itzhak Ben-David, Elyas Fermand, Camelia Kuhnen and Geng Li

No 25336, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We show that there exists significant heterogeneity across US households in how uncertain they are in their expectations regarding personal and macroeconomic outcomes, and that uncertainty in expectations predicts households' choices. Individuals with lower income or education, more precarious finances, and living in counties with higher unemployment are more uncertain in their expectations regarding own-income growth, inflation, and national home price changes. People with more uncertain expectations, even accounting for their socioeconomic characteristics, exhibit more precaution in their consumption, credit, and investment behaviors.

JEL-codes: D1 D12 D14 D15 D84 G11 G4 G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
Note: AP EFG
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (49)

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Working Paper: Expectations Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior (2018)
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