Pandemic Recession: L or V-Shaped?
Victoria Gregory,
Guido Menzio and
David Wiczer
No 27105, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Abstract:
We develop and calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market in order to forecast the evolution of the aggregate US labor market during and after the coronavirus pandemic. The model is designed to capture the heterogeneity of the transitions of individual workers across states of unemployment, employment and across different employers. The model is also designed to capture the trade-offs in the choice between temporary and permanent layoffs. Under reasonable parametrizations of the model, the lockdown instituted to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus is shown to have long-lasting negative effects on unemployment. This is so because the lockdown disproportionately disrupts the employment of workers who need years to find stable jobs.
JEL-codes: E0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-mac
Note: EFG
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (72)
Published as Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David Wiczer, 2020. "Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped?," Quarterly Review, vol 40(1).
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w27105.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: Pandemic Recession: L- or V-Shaped? (2020)
Working Paper: Pandemic Recession: L or V-Shaped? (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27105
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w27105
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by (wpc@nber.org).