Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach

John McLaren and Su Wang

No 28275, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Numerous government policies have attempted to keep workers out of the workplace, on the assumption that this will lower transmission of COVID-19. We test that assumption, measuring the effect of aggregate workplace absence on US COVID deaths at the county level through August. Instrumenting with an index of how many local workers pre-pandemic can work from home, based on differences in county occupational mix, we find no effect of workplace absence until mid-May, then a sharply rising effect. By August, moving 10 percent of a county's workers from the workplace would lower deaths there by three quarters one month later.

JEL-codes: I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12
Note: EH
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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