How Credible is the Credibility Revolution?

Kevin Lang

No 31666, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: When economists analyze a well-conducted RCT or natural experiment and find a statistically significant effect, they conclude the null of no effect is unlikely to be true. But how frequently is this conclusion warranted? The answer depends on the proportion of tested nulls that are true and the power of the tests. I model the distribution of t-statistics in leading economics journals. Using my preferred model, 65% of narrowly rejected null hypotheses and 41% of all rejected null hypotheses with |t|

JEL-codes: A10 C12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sog
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