The Uncharted Waters of International Trade

Pol Antras

No 33312, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The field of international trade has undergone significant theoretical and empirical advancements over the last twenty-five years. A key breakthrough has been the emergence of firm-level approaches to studying exporting, importing, and global value chains. The field has also experienced a quantitative revolution, driven by medium-scale models that rapidly assess the implications of trade cost shocks on real income. Additionally, a branch of the empirical literature has unshackled itself from the discipline of theoretical frameworks and from traditional data sources. Yet, several underexplored areas, or `uncharted waters,' remain in international trade research. I outline new potential areas for theoretical research, including incorporating oligopolistic (strategic) behavior into core models, and fostering greater cross-disciplinary collaboration with other fields in economics and social sciences, such as behavioral economics or political science. I also discuss potential uncharted waters for empirical trade economists, while identifying potential new sources of data and ways in which official trade statistics could be improved. Finally, I explore how big data and artificial intelligence could reshape the design of international trade policy in coming years.

JEL-codes: B27 D21 D22 F12 F14 F23 F52 L11 L13 L22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-12
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