Geoeconomic Pressure

Christopher Clayton, Antonio Coppola, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger

No 34020, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Geoeconomic pressure—the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic goals—is a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically identify the application of and response to geoeconomic pressure from large textual corpora. We classify which governments apply pressure to which foreign targets, using which instruments, firms, and products. We demonstrate that firms affected by tariffs respond primarily with price changes whereas firms affected by export controls respond disproportionately by investing in research and development. We document significant heterogeneity in how firms respond to pressure based on whether their home government is applying the pressure, whether their home country is the recipient of the pressure, or whether they are based in an affected third party country. Finally, we quantify the degree of measurement uncertainty generated by the LLM-based analysis by comparing the classifications across multiple open-weight models as well as considering a wide range of variations of our prompts.

JEL-codes: C4 F3 F4 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big
Note: AP CF EFG IFM ITI ME POL
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w34020.pdf (application/pdf)
Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34020

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w34020
The price is Paper copy available by mail.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().