Campaigning for Extinction: Eradication of Sparrows and the Great Famine in China

Eyal G. Frank, Qinyun Wang, Shaoda Wang, Xuebin Wang and Yang You

No 34087, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: How do large disruptions to ecosystems affect human well-being? This paper tests the long-standing hypothesis that China's 1958 Four Pests Campaign, which exterminated sparrows despite scientists’ warnings about their pest-control role, exacerbated the Great Famine—the largest in human history. Combining newly digitized data on historical agricultural productivity in China with habitat suitability modeling methods in ecology, we find that, after sparrow eradication, a one-standard-deviation increase in sparrow suitability led to 5.3% larger rice and 8.7% larger wheat declines. State food procurement exacerbated these losses, resulting in a 9.6% higher mortality in high-suitability counties—implying nearly two million excess deaths.

JEL-codes: N55 Q50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cna and nep-his
Note: DEV EEE
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