Technology and Labor Markets: Past, Present, and Future; Evidence from Two Centuries of Innovation

Huben Liu, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence Schmidt and Bryan Seegmiller

No 34386, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We use recent advances in natural language processing and large language models to construct novel measures of technology exposure for workers that span almost two centuries. Combining our measures with Census data on occupation employment, we show that technological progress over the 20th century has led to economically meaningful shifts in labor demand across occupations: it has consistently increased demand for occupations with higher education requirements, occupations that pay higher wages, and occupations with a greater fraction of female workers. Using these insights and a calibrated model, we then explore different scenarios for how advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are likely to impact employment trends in the medium run. The model predicts a reversal of past trends, with AI favoring occupations that are lower-educated, lower-paid, and more male-dominated.

JEL-codes: J23 J24 N3 O3 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-bec, nep-big, nep-edu, nep-his, nep-hrm, nep-ino, nep-lma and nep-tid
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