Who Pays for Tariffs Along the Supply Chain? Evidence from European Wine Tariffs

Aaron B. Flaaen, Ali Hortaçsu, Felix Tintelnot, Nicolas Urdaneta and Yi Xu

No 34392, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of tariffs along the supply chain using product-level data from a large U.S. wine importer in the context of the 2019-2021 U.S. tariffs on European wines. By combining confidential transaction prices with foreign suppliers and U.S. distributors as well as retail prices, we trace price impacts along the supply chain, from foreign producers to U.S. consumers. Although pass-through at the border was incomplete, our estimates indicate that U.S. consumers paid more than the government received in tariff revenue, because domestic markups amplified downstream price effects. The dollar margins per bottle for the importer contracted, but expanded for distributors/retailers. Price effects emerge gradually along the chain, taking roughly one year to materialize at the retail level. Additionally, we find evidence of tariff engineering by the wine industry to avoid duties, leading to composition-driven biases in unit values in standard trade statistics.

JEL-codes: F13 F14 L66 L81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10
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