Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco M. Vazquez

No 34496, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We use high-frequency retail microdata to measure the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices. By matching daily prices from major U.S. retailers to product-level tariff rates and countries of origin, we construct price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes across goods and trading partners. Prices began rising immediately after the broader tariff measures announced in early March and continued to increase gradually over subsequent months, with imported goods rising roughly twice as much as domestic ones. Our estimated retail tariff pass-through is 20 percent, with a cumulative contribution of about 0.7 percentage points to the all-items Consumer Price Index by September 2025. Our results show that tariff costs were gradually but steadily transmitted to U.S. consumers, with additional spillovers to domestic goods.

JEL-codes: E31 F13 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn, nep-int, nep-mst and nep-opm
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