The Geography of Science

Abhishek Nagaraj and Randol Yao

No 34694, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Science has long been concentrated in the Western world, but the global research landscape is undergoing a profound reorganization. Using data on 44 million publications from 1980 to 2022, we document the geography of science in terms of who produces it, what it studies, and where it diffuses. The share of publications produced in the United States has fallen from 40% in 1980 to 15% in 2022, while China’s share has risen from near-zero to 32%. This pattern extends even to elite outlets, with China now producing over 35% of top-journal publications. Notably, this is driven not only by an expanding researcher base but also—to a large extent—by increases in individual productivity. This growth varies by fields: China leads in the Engineering and Physical Sciences (such as Chemistry), while the US retains its lead in Biomedical and Health Sciences. Moreover, China’s expanding leadership in scientific production has not translated into a commensurate shift in global diffusion and integration. Elite research remains disproportionately focused on US topics (40% of breakthrough publications), and citations to Chinese research disproportionately come from within China rather than from other regions, even for top-tier science. Similar to China, other middle- and low-income countries (including India, Russia, and Brazil) have also expanded output producing as much research as high-income European Union countries combined (about 21% overall) but they remain underrepresented in top-tier journals. Overall, our findings highlight both the democratization and fragmentation of global science, raising important questions about the future of the global scientific enterprise.

JEL-codes: F60 O31 O33 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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