Class Mobility in the Era of Rising Inequality: A Synthetic Dynasty Analysis

Geoffrey Wodtke, Weiqi Wang, Kristina Butaeva and Steven Durlauf

No 34800, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper studies contemporary trends in class mobility using a new approach based on the “synthetic dynasties” represented in Markov chains. This approach yields several novel measures of movement and memory, which respectively capture how class positions differ from one generation to the next and how the influence of class origins dissipates across generations. Applying these methods to data from the U.S., we find that overall levels of movement and memory have remained largely stable across cohorts born between 1945 and 1990. This stability, however, masks offsetting class-specific trends. Among those from the upper and lower classes, movement has declined and memory has increased. In contrast, among the middle classes, movement has risen and memory has weakened.

JEL-codes: D30 H0 J01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02
Note: ED EFG LS PE
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