Temperature and Arrests in Prohibition-era South Carolina

Howard Bodenhorn

No 34867, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The positive correlation between high temperatures and crime is well established. I study how random, within-month daily high temperature and precipitation affects arrests rather than incidents. I analyze arrest records of a Prohibition Era southern city with mean summer daily high temperatures of 88ºF without modern air conditioning or weather forecasting so outdoors temperatures are salient. Nonparametric estimates from negative binomial regressions with standard errors corrected for heteroskedasticity and serial correlation reveal that all-offense arrests are 21% lower at 35º than at 70ºF. Arrests do not increase at temperatures above 70º. The same pattern of fewer arrests at low temperatures emerges for violent, public order, and low-level fraud arrests, as well as for men, Whites, and Blacks.

JEL-codes: K42 N41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02
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