Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

Ted Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch and Kyle Du

No 34975, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Recent studies of Ivy-Plus institutions suggest that standardized test scores (SAT/ACT) are far better predictors of college success than high school grade point average (HS-GPA), prompting a return to the requirement that test scores be submitted for admission at elite colleges. We ask whether re-establishing the SAT requirement for admission at a large urban public university system would improve the predictability of academic outcomes. Using administrative data for the 2010-2019 first-year cohorts, we update earlier work of students from public universities as to the relative predictive power of HSGPA and SAT scores on first-year outcomes and graduation rates. Contrary to findings at elite private institutions, we find that HSGPA is the dominant predictor of academic success in this public system. A one-standard-deviation increase in HSGPA is four to six times more predictive of six-year graduation than a comparable increase in SAT scores. Out-of-sample forecasts for the post-COVID period (2020–2024) confirm that test-optional models relying only on HSGPA experience relatively little loss in predictive accuracy compared to models that include test scores. We conclude that HSGPA remains the most reliable signal of degree completion at broad-access public universities.

JEL-codes: J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03
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