Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives

Salome Baslandze, Zachary Edwards, John Graham, Ty McClure, Brent Meyer, Michael Sparks, Sonya R. Waddell and Daniel Weitz

No 34984, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption across firms, with more than half having already invested, though many smaller firms are only beginning to do so. Labor productivity gains are positive, vary across sectors, and are expected to strengthen in 2026, with the largest effects concentrated in high-skill services and finance. These gains are not primarily driven by firms' capital deepening but instead reflect increases in revenue-based total factor productivity, closely associated with innovation-and demand-oriented channels. We document a productivity paradox, in which perceived productivity gains are larger than measured productivity gains, likely reflecting a delay in revenue realizations. In labor markets, we find little evidence of near-term aggregate employment declines due to AI, though larger companies anticipate AI-driven workforce reductions, while smaller firms expect modest gains. We also find evidence of compositional reallocation of labor both within and across firms, with routine clerical roles declining and a relative demand for skilled technical roles increasing. We develop an index that ranks job functions most negatively affected by AI.

JEL-codes: D22 D24 G0 J01 J24 M15 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-eff, nep-hrm, nep-lma, nep-sbm and nep-tid
Note: CF IFM LS PR
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w34984.pdf (application/pdf)
Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives (2026)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34984

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w34984
The price is Paper copy available by mail.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().