The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

Martha Elena Delgado Rojas, Juan Herreño, Marc Hofstetter and Mathieu Pedemonte

No 35175, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We construct a novel measure of one-year-ahead exchange rate forecasts and nowcasts for non-financial firms. We then study a randomized information intervention that provides a subset of firms with a publicly available exchange rate forecast. This information treatment persistently shifts exchange rate expectations and perceptions, with stronger effects for non-exporting firms. We link survey responses with administrative customs data and estimate a positive intertemporal elasticity of import demand to exogenous changes in expected future exchange rates. Our findings highlight the role of intertemporal substitution after anticipated changes in trade costs.

JEL-codes: E31 E71 F31 G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
Note: IFM ITI ME
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations (2024)
Working Paper: The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations (2024)
Working Paper: The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations (2024)
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