A Model of U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle

Rohan Kekre and Moritz Lenel

No 35902, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We propose a general equilibrium model in which U.S. monetary policy affects global risk premia by revaluing the wealth of currency-mismatched arbitrageurs. Assuming their portfolios are mean-variance efficient, arbitrageurs must be short the dollar. A U.S. tightening thus erodes arbitrageurs' net worth and raises the global price of risk. We discipline this mechanism to rationalize the effects of U.S. monetary policy on international asset prices, and we quantify the associated macroeconomic spillovers and role of policy responses abroad. In a potential future with higher dollar interest rates, arbitrageurs' dollar funding and U.S. monetary policy spillovers are dampened.

JEL-codes: E44 E52 F31 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-ifn and nep-mon
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