Unemployment Insurance Taxes and the Cyclical and Seasonal Properties of Unemployment

David Card and Phillip Levine

No 4030, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We combine Current Population Survey microdata for 1979-1987 with a newly assembled database of tax rates for the Unemployment Insurance system to measure the effects of imperfect experience-rating on temporary layoffs and other types of unemployment. We find a strong negative association between the degree of experience-rating and the rate of temporary layoff unemployment, with the largest effect in recessionary years and the smallest effect in expansionary years. Increases in the degree of experience-rating are also associated with dampened seasonal fluctuations in temporary layoffs, particularly in construction and durable manufacturing. The correlation between the degree of experience-rating and the unemployment rate of permanent job losers is smaller but also negative, whereas the correlation with the unemployment Me of job quitters and re-entrants is negligible. Attempts to control for the endogeneity of unemployment insurance taxes are consistent with a causal interpretation of our findings.

Date: 1992-03
Note: LS
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Published as Journal of Public Economics, vol 53, no. 1 (February 1994)

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Journal Article: Unemployment insurance taxes and the cyclical and seasonal properties of unemployment (1994)
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