The Influence of Age Structure on Cancer Mortality: Evidence from Italy and Europe, 2020-2022. A Methodological Note

Leonardo Ventura

No kzac4_v1, MetaArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: In epidemiology, standardization is an essential tool when comparing mortality between populations with different age structures. Using Italy, one of the oldest countries in the European Union, and the EU-27 aggregate as a case study, this methodological note demonstrates how comparisons between crude mortality rates can give misleading interpretations of disease burden. While crude rates suggested a higher mortality in Italy (≈280 per 100 000) compared to the EU-27 (≈259 per 100 000), standardized rates showed the reverse pattern (≈224 vs ≈239 per 100 000). A Kitagawa decomposition confirmed that the excess in crude mortality rates for Italy is almost entirely explained by the effect of age structure rather than true etiological factors. This methodological note illustrates the necessity of proper standardization in cancer epidemiology. All the instructions to download the official datasets and the Python scripts for the analysis are openly available on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.17251977), offering both an educational example and a methodological reference for standardization to support students, policymakers, and researchers in applying these techniques.

Date: 2025-10-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:metaar:kzac4_v1

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/kzac4_v1

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