Hybrid confidence intervals for informative uniform asymptotic inference after model selection

Adam McCloskey

Biometrika, 2024, vol. 111, issue 1, 109-127

Abstract: I propose a new type of confidence interval for correct asymptotic inference after using data to select a model of interest without assuming any model is correctly specified. This hybrid confidence interval is constructed by combining techniques from the selective inference and post-selection inference literatures to yield a short confidence interval across a wide range of data realizations. I show that hybrid confidence intervals have correct asymptotic coverage, uniformly over a large class of probability distributions that do not bound scaled model parameters. I illustrate the use of these confidence intervals in the problem of inference after using the lasso objective function to select a regression model of interest and provide evidence of their desirable length and coverage properties in small samples via a set of Monte Carlo experiments that entail a variety of different data distributions as well as an empirical application to the predictors of diabetes disease progression.

Keywords: Confidence interval; Lasso; Misspecification; Post-selection inference; Selective inference; Uniform asymptotics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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