Towards a turnkey approach for unbiased Monte Carlo estimation of smooth functions of expectations

Nicolas Chopin, Francesca R Crucinio and Sumeetpal S Singh

Biometrika, 2025, vol. 112, issue 3, asaf030.

Abstract: Given a smooth function , we develop a general approach to turn Monte Carlo samples with expectationinto an unbiased estimate of . Specifically, we develop estimators that are based on randomly truncating the Taylor series expansion ofand estimating the coefficients of the truncated series. We derive their properties and propose a strategy to set their tuning parameters (which depend on ) automatically, with a view to making the whole approach simple to use. We develop our methods for the specific functionsand , as they arise in several statistical applications such as maximum likelihood estimation of latent variable models and Bayesian inference for unnormalized models. Detailed numerical studies are performed for a range of applications to determine how competitive and reliable the proposed approach is.

Keywords: Random truncation; Sum estimator; Unbiased Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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