High pressure and black clouds: Keynes and the frequentist theory of probability

Alberto Baccini

Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2004, vol. 28, issue 5, 653-666

Abstract: The thesis of this paper is that Keynes wrote A Treatise on Probability in opposition to the frequentist theory of probability, systematised by John Venn, which denied any role for probability in decision theory. Keynes was interested in finding an alternative conception of probability that could be utilised as a guide of life. To analyse this point, the paper considers Keynes's criticisms of frequentist tradition in the two versions of his Fellowship dissertation, and in the published edition of his Treatise. Keynes's project is then illustrated with the famous example of whether or not to go out with one's umbrella in the situation in which the pressure is high and the clouds are black. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2004
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/beh030 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:cambje:v:28:y:2004:i:5:p:653-666

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://academic.oup.com/journals

Access Statistics for this article

Cambridge Journal of Economics is currently edited by Jacqui Lagrue

More articles in Cambridge Journal of Economics from Cambridge Political Economy Society Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().