Cointegration and Prediction Analysis of Market Supply in the Dutch Pig-Farming Industry

W Erno Kuiper and Matthew T G Meulenberg

European Review of Agricultural Economics, 1997, vol. 24, issue 2, 285-312

Abstract: In this paper we derive a restricted vector error-correction model (RVECM) to predict the Dutch gross indigenous pig production (GIP). For this purpose, we model the long-run supply behaviour of the producers of piglets and fattened pigs. We supplemented Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure with the asymptotic least-squares method to test the nonlinear cross-equation parameter restrictions in the long-run model. Our empirical results comply with the theoretical long-run model and show that the RVECM GIP predictions are slightly more accurate than the forecasts prepared by the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics for the European Commission. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

Date: 1997
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