Price and Volume Divergence in China’s Real Estate Markets: The Role of Local Governments

Jeffery (Jinfan) Chang, Yuheng Wang and Wei Xiong

The Review of Financial Studies, 2026, vol. 39, issue 2, 343-386

Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022), Chinese cities witnessed a paradox: residential land and new house prices surged while transaction volumes plummeted. We attribute this to local governments’ active price management through supply controls, land acquisitions by local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), and limits on new home sales permits. Cities more dependent on land sales and land-backed debt before the pandemic experienced greater price increases and price–volume divergence, with LGFVs buying more land at higher prices than other buyers. These interventions helped sustain fiscal financing but deepened developers’ financial distress, revealing unintended consequences of local governments’ fiscal strategies during downturns.

Keywords: G12; G23; H74; R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaf089 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:39:y:2026:i:2:p:343-386.

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://academic.oup.com/journals

Access Statistics for this article

The Review of Financial Studies is currently edited by Itay Goldstein

More articles in The Review of Financial Studies from Society for Financial Studies Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().