Are Confidence and Sentiment Indicators Crucial in Forecasting the Economic Growth of Romania during the Current Crisis?

Stoica Tiberiu ()
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Stoica Tiberiu: The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies

Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, 2010, vol. X, issue 2, 756-760

Abstract: This paper outlines the importance of confidence and sentiment indicators in forecasting short-term economic growth. I used an econometric model similar to the one used by Kitchen and Monaco (2003), and I made forecasts regarding the economic growth of Romania. The model is combining different individual forecasts of GDP in order to supply a final result regarding the economic growth. I found out that confidence and sentiment indicators have a higher explanatory power as compared to other frequently used variables. Although I was not the first economist that used confidence and sentiment indicators for making projections regarding the economic growth, I consider that future research regarding forecasts of GDP should rely more on these types of indicators.

Keywords: forecasts; economic growth; ARIMA; business surveys (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C22 E0 O40 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ovi:oviste:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:756-760

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