Addressing complex seasonal patterns in hotel forecasting: a comparative study

Apostolos Ampountolas ()
Additional contact information
Apostolos Ampountolas: Boston University

Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, 2025, vol. 24, issue 2, No 4, 143-152

Abstract: Abstract Accurately forecasting demand poses challenges for revenue managers, especially amid supply and demand uncertainties increased by the recent global pandemic. In addition, demand forecasting is particularly challenging in the hotel industry due to anomalous days and repeating seasonal patterns. This study investigates techniques like TBATS, MSTL, and STL Decomposition against Linear Regression in hotel demand time series analysis, focusing on daily occupancy and average daily rate seasonalities. Using a 5-year dataset from an Upper Upscale branded property, the study employs in-sample data for model development and a rolling window approach for testing. Results highlight the robust performance of TBATS and MSTL across different forecasting horizons, consistently outperforming Seasonal-Trend Decomposition (STLF) and linear regression, providing insights crucial for revenue optimization and strategic decision-making in the hotel industry.

Keywords: Complex seasonal patterns; Multiple seasonalities; TBATS; MSTL; Forecasting accuracy; Hotel demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41272-024-00494-6 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:jorapm:v:24:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1057_s41272-024-00494-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.palgrave.com/gp/journal/41272

DOI: 10.1057/s41272-024-00494-6

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management is currently edited by Ian Yeoman

More articles in Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management from Palgrave Macmillan
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().