Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Portugal: A Nonparametric Quantile Approach

Fernando Cascão and Katja Neugebauer

Working Papers from Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department

Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of house prices in Portugal, where nominal prices have doubled over the past decade. Using asking prices for residential properties from 2018 to 2022, we compare the accuracy of several machine learning techniques and select gradient tree boosting as the optimal model for analyzing the complex dynamics of the housing market. Structural property characteristics and neighborhood factors – such as proximity to amenities, demographics, and household financial standing – emerge as significant determinants, with their influence varying across price quantiles and districts. Furthermore, we introduce prediction intervals using conformalized quantile regression, providing a more robust measure of estimation uncertainty.

JEL-codes: C14 C21 C55 O18 R21 R30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202506

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