Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case

Duo Qin, Marie Anne Cagas (), Geoffrey Ducanes, Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos () and Pilipinas Quising ()
Additional contact information
Marie Anne Cagas: Asian Development Bank
Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos: Asian Development Bank
Pilipinas Quising: Asian Development Bank

No 64, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: This paper assesses empirically the sustainability and feasibility of the government debt in the Philippines using the No Ponzi Game criterion. Both historical data and forecasts generated by a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippines are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried out to mimic future uncertainty. The test results show that, up to the end of the present administration in 2010, the Philippine government debt is not sustainable but weakly feasible, that the feasibility is vulnerable to major adverse shocks, and that simple budgetary deficit control policy is inadequate for achieving debt sustainability or strengthening feasibility.

Keywords: feasibility; government debt; macroeconometric model; No Ponzi Game criterion; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 E62 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2005-02-01
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Related works:
Journal Article: Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case (2006)
Working Paper: Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:adbewp:0064

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