The Dynamics of Hostile Activity and the Prediction of War

Dina A. Zinnes and Robert G. Muncaster
Additional contact information
Dina A. Zinnes: Political Science Department, University of Illinois
Robert G. Muncaster: Mathematics Department, University of Illinois

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1984, vol. 28, issue 2, 187-229

Abstract: In an earlier article (Muncaster and Zinnes, 1983) a dynamic model was presented that linked hostile interaction, protracted conflict, and war. The key variables in the model included interaction, grievance, fear of war, and a pull to war. The present article extends the first model by including the amount of hostile activity. Given this additional factor it is possible to predict not only the time at which a war will occur, but also the level of hostility in the system necessary for war to occur. The model further indicates why some hostile interactions cycle in extended protracted conflict patterns while others shoot off to war.

Date: 1984
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002784028002001 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:28:y:1984:i:2:p:187-229

DOI: 10.1177/0022002784028002001

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Conflict Resolution from Peace Science Society (International)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().