Preventing Systemic War

Manus I. Midlarsky
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Manus I. Midlarsky: Center for International Relations and Department of Political Science, University of Colorado, Boulder

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1984, vol. 28, issue 4, 563-584

Abstract: In this article, an equilibrium theory of conflict behavior is developed in which there exists a balance or equilibrium in the number of disputes begun and ended in a given time period. Significant interdependence as the result of diffusion, reinforcement, or a common source of conflict behavior leads to departures from the equilibrium model that, in turn, are associated with the onset of systemic, or global, war. Using a set of serious international disputes occurring in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the nineteenth century is found to fit the equilibrium model, but the period approaching World War I does not, when all disputes involving both major and minor powers are considered. Disputes involving only major powers constitute a stable system in both the nineteenth century and pre-World War I period. Implications for crisis management and conflict resolution are developed through the use of disjoint sets that effectively separate the different kinds of disputes, which together could lead to global war.

Date: 1984
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:28:y:1984:i:4:p:563-584

DOI: 10.1177/0022002784028004001

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