Traditional Decision Analysis and the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making

Raymond Dacey and Lisa J. Carlson
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Raymond Dacey: College of Business and Economics, University of Idaho
Lisa J. Carlson: Department of Political Science, University of Idaho

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2004, vol. 48, issue 1, 38-55

Abstract: The poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making posits a two-stage process wherein the decision maker first employs a noncompensatory decision rule to eliminate politically unacceptable alternatives and then employs a (perhaps) traditional decision procedure to select from the remaining set of acceptable alternatives. Ageneral decision analysis is used to provide a structured account of the elimination process of the first stage of the poliheuristic theory by displaying a noncompensatory decision rule for eliminating unacceptable policy alternatives. The results show how general decision analysis can be used to specify when an alternative is unacceptable to a political decision maker who is sensitive to public opinion.

Keywords: Decision analysis; poliheuristic theory; risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jocore:v:48:y:2004:i:1:p:38-55

DOI: 10.1177/0022002703261053

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