Civil War in the Post-Colonial World, 1946-92

Errol A. Henderson and J. David Singer
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Errol A. Henderson: Department of Political Science, Wayne State University
J. David Singer: Department of Political Science, University of Michigan

Journal of Peace Research, 2000, vol. 37, issue 3, 275-299

Abstract: In this article, we provide a systematic analysis of the extent to which political, economic, and cultural factors are associated with civil wars in the post-colonial states of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Results of logistic regression analyses corroborate previous findings that semi-democracy is associated with an increased likelihood of civil war, while greater economic development reduces the probability of civil war. We also found that militarized post-colonial states are more likely to experience civil war, as are Asian — more than Middle Eastern and African — states. Among the political, economic, and cultural factors, semi-democracy has the greatest impact on the probability of civil war, which suggests the greater role of political — more than economic or cultural — factors in post-colonial civil wars. All told, the findings suggest that a multifaceted strategy of full democratization, demilitarization, and development is required to reduce the likelihood of civil war in post-colonial states.

Date: 2000
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joupea:v:37:y:2000:i:3:p:275-299

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