Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide

Benjamin E Goldsmith (), Charles R Butcher, Dimitri Semenovich and Arcot Sowmya
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Benjamin E Goldsmith: Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney
Charles R Butcher: National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Otago
Dimitri Semenovich: School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of New South Wales
Arcot Sowmya: School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of New South Wales

Journal of Peace Research, 2013, vol. 50, issue 4, 437-452

Abstract: We present what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first published set of annual out-of-sample forecasts of genocide and politicide based on a global dataset. Our goal is to produce a prototype for a real-time model capable of forecasting one year into the future. Building on the current literature, we take several important steps forward. We implement an unconditional two-stage model encompassing both instability and genocide, allowing our sample to be the available global data, rather than using conditional case selection or a case-control approach. We explore factors exhibiting considerable variance over time to improve yearly forecasting performance. And we produce annual lists of at-risk states in a format that should be of use to policymakers seeking to prevent such mass atrocities. Our out-of-sample forecasts for 1988–2003 predict 90.9% of genocide onsets correctly while also predicting 79.2% of non-onset years correctly, an improvement over a previous study using a case-control in-sample approach. We produce 16 annual forecasts based only on previous years’ data, which identify six of 11 cases of genocide/politicide onset within the top 5% of at-risk countries per year. We believe this represents substantial progress towards useful real-time forecasting of such rare events. We conclude by suggesting ways to further enhance predictive performance.

Keywords: forecasting; genocide; political instability; politicide (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joupea:v:50:y:2013:i:4:p:437-452

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