Subnational violent conflict forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–65, using climate-sensitive models

Frank DW Witmer, Andrew M Linke, John O’Loughlin, Andrew Gettelman and Arlene Laing
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Frank DW Witmer: Department of Computer Science & Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage
Andrew M Linke: Department of Geography, University of Utah
John O’Loughlin: Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder
Andrew Gettelman: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Arlene Laing: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University

Journal of Peace Research, 2017, vol. 54, issue 2, 175-192

Abstract: How will local violent conflict patterns in sub-Saharan Africa evolve until the middle of the 21st century? Africa is recognized as a particularly vulnerable continent to environmental and climate change since a large portion of its population is poor and reliant on rain-fed agriculture. We use a climate-sensitive approach to model sub-Saharan African violence in the past (geolocated to the nearest settlements) and then forecast future violence using sociopolitical factors such as population size and political rights (governance), coupled with temperature anomalies. Our baseline model is calibrated using 1° gridded monthly data from 1980 to 2012 at a finer spatio-temporal resolution than existing conflict forecasts. We present multiple forecasts of violence under alternative climate change scenarios (optimistic and current global trajectories), of political rights scenarios (improvement and decline), and population projections (low and high fertility). We evaluate alternate shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) by plotting violence forecasts over time and by detailed mapping of recent and future levels of violence by decade. The forecasts indicate that a growing population and rising temperatures will lead to higher levels of violence in sub-Saharan Africa if political rights do not improve. If political rights continue to improve at the same rate as observed over the last three decades, there is reason for optimism that overall levels of violence will hold steady or even decline in Africa, in spite of projected population increases and rising temperatures.

Keywords: disaggregated violence; environmental change; governance; multilevel models; population projections; socioeconomic pathways (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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