Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war

Lars-Erik Cederman, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Julian Wucherpfennig
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Lars-Erik Cederman: Centre for Comparative and International Studies (CIS), ETH Zürich
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch: Department of Government, University of Essex & Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Julian Wucherpfennig: Hertie School of Governance

Journal of Peace Research, 2017, vol. 54, issue 2, 262-274

Abstract: Many scholars have detected a decrease of political violence, but the causes of this decline remain unclear. As a contribution to this debate, we revisit the controversy over trends in conflict after the end of the Cold War. While many made ominous predictions of surging ethnic warfare, Gurr presented evidence of a pacifying trend since the mid-1990s and predicted a further decline in ethnic conflict in an article on ‘the waning of ethnic war’. Leveraging more recent data on ethnic groups and their participation in ethnic civil wars, this study evaluates if Gurr was right about the decline of ethnic conflict, and if he was right for the right reasons. We assess whether an increase in governments’ accommodative policies toward ethnic groups can plausibly account for a decline in ethnic civil war. Our findings lend considerable support to an account of the pacifying trend that stresses the granting of group rights, regional autonomy, and inclusion in power-sharing, as well as democratization and peacekeeping.

Keywords: civil war; decline of war; ethnic conflict; ethnic inclusion; group rights; power sharing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joupea:v:54:y:2017:i:2:p:262-274

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