Estimating the Prognosis of Hepatitis C Patients Infected by Transfusion in Canada between 1986 and 1990

Murray Krahn, John B. Wong, Jenny Heathcote, Linda Scully and Leonard Seeff

Medical Decision Making, 2004, vol. 24, issue 1, 20-29

Abstract: Objective. To develop a natural history model for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to determine allocation of compensatory funds to Canadians who acquired HCV through the blood supply from 1986 through 1990. Methods. A Markov cohort simulation model for HCV prognosis was developed, using content experts, published data, posttransfusion look-back data, and a national survey. Results. The mortality rate in transfusees is high (46% at 10 years), although HCV-related deaths are rare. Only 14% develop-cirrhosis at 20 years (95% confidence interval, 0%–-44%), but 1 in 4 will eventually develop cirrhosis, and 1 in 8 will die of liver disease. Conclusions. This unique application of Markov cohort simulation and epidemiologic methods provides a state-of-the-art estimate ofHCVprognosis and has allowed compensation decisions to be based on the best available evidence.

Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:24:y:2004:i:1:p:20-29

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X03261568

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