Prevalence of Antibodies Associated with Herd Immunity: A New Indicator to Evaluate the Establishment of Herd Immunity and to Decide Immunization Strategies

Pedro Plans
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Pedro Plans: Health Department of Catalonia, General Directorate of Public Health, Barcelona, Spain, pedro.plans@gencat.net

Medical Decision Making, 2010, vol. 30, issue 4, 438-443

Abstract: Objective. To develop a method to estimate the critical prevalence of antibodies associated with herd immunity (p c ) and to assess the establishment of herd immunity against measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, and pertussis in Catalonia (Spain) using this method. Methods. The herd immunity is established when the prevalence of antibodies (positive serological results) is higher than p c = I c Se/PV, where I c is the prevalence of protected individuals necessary to block the transmission of an infection in the population, Se is the sensitivity of the serological test, and PV is the predictive value of a positive serological result. The establishment of herd immunity was assessed comparing the age-group specific p c with the prevalence of antibodies (p) observed in Catalonia in 2002 in schoolchildren (6—9 years) and individuals aged 14 to 29 years and 45 to 54 years. Results. The herd immunity was not established (p

Keywords: herd immunity; measles; mumps; rubella; varicella; pertussis; MMR vaccine; DTaP vaccine; varicella vaccine; serological surveys; vaccination programs. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:30:y:2010:i:4:p:438-443

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X09353453

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