Ratio Format Shapes Health Decisions: The Practical Significance of the “1-in-X†Effect

Miroslav Sirota and Marie Juanchich
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Miroslav Sirota: Department of Psychology, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, UK
Marie Juanchich: Department of Psychology, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, UK

Medical Decision Making, 2019, vol. 39, issue 1, 32-40

Abstract: Prior research found that “1-in-X†ratios led to higher and less accurate subjective probability than “N-in-X*N†ratios or other formats, even though they featured the same mathematical information. It is unclear, however, whether the effect transfers into health decisions, and the practical significance of the effect is undetermined. Based on previous findings and risk communication theories, we hypothesized that the 1-in-X effect would occur and transfer into relevant decisions. We also tested whether age, gender, and education differences would moderate the 1-in-X effect on decision making. We conducted 3 well-powered experiments ( n = 1912) using a sample from the general adult UK population to test our hypotheses, estimated the effect, and excluded a possible methodological explanation for such a transfer. In hypothetical scenarios, participants decided whether to travel to Kenya given the chance of contracting malaria (experiment 1) and whether to take recommended steroids given the side effects (experiments 2 and 3). Across the experiments, we replicated a small to medium 1-in-X effect on the perceived probability (Hedge’s g = −0.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], −0.47 to −0.24; z = −6.18; P

Keywords: 1-in-X effect; subjective probability; risk communication; medical decisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:39:y:2019:i:1:p:32-40

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X18814256

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