The Precision-Bias Distinction for Evaluating Visual Decision Aids for Risk Perception

Jessica K. Witt

Medical Decision Making, 2020, vol. 40, issue 6, 846-853

Abstract: Risk communication is critically important, for both patients and providers. However, people struggle to understand risks because there are inherent biases and limitations to reasoning under uncertainty. A common strategy to enhance risk communication is the use of decision aids, such as charts or graphs, that depict the risk visually. A problem with prior research on visual decision aids is that it used a metric of performance that confounds 2 underlying constructs: precision and bias. Precision refers to a person’s sensitivity to the information, whereas bias refers to a general tendency to overestimate (or underestimate) the level of risk. A visual aid is effective for communicating risk only if it enhances precision or, once precision is suitably high, reduces bias. This article proposes a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of visual decision aids. Empirical data further illustrate how the new methodology is a significant advancement over more traditional research designs.

Keywords: Bayesian reasoning; decision aid; randomized control trial; shared decision making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:medema:v:40:y:2020:i:6:p:846-853

DOI: 10.1177/0272989X20943516

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