Second Leg Home Advantage: A study on the Brazilian soccer cup

Pedro Acioly Teixeira () and Marcio Nakane

No 2025_02, Working Papers, Department of Economics from University of São Paulo (FEA-USP)

Abstract: This study examines the existence of Second Leg Home Advantage (SLHA) in soccer knockout matches, focusing on the Brazilian Cup. Using an instrumentalvariables approach, we construct a team quality control variable based on betting odds. Our findings indicate a significant SLHA effect, with home teams in the second leg winning between 53.9% and 55.8% of matches, after controlling for team strength. We further explore the conditional impact of first-leg results, showing that a draw in the first leg increases a second-leg home team’s probability of advancing to over 64%. Contrary to common belief, the away goals rule does not significantly affect outcomes. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on SLHA and suggest that playing the second leg at home provides a meaningful competitive advantage. The findings have implications for tournament design and team strategy in knockout competitions.

Keywords: home advantage; second leg home advantage; soccer; Brazilian soccer cup (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Z2 Z21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02-19, Revised 2025-03-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev, nep-env and nep-res
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