A Migration Modelling System to Support Government Decision-making

Tony Champion, Glen Bramley, Stewart Fotheringham, James Macgill and Philip Rees
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Tony Champion: University of Newcastle upon Tyne
Glen Bramley: Edinburgh College of Art/Heriot-Watt University
Stewart Fotheringham: University of Newcastle upon Tyne
James Macgill: University of Leeds
Philip Rees: University of Leeds

Chapter 15 in Planning Support Systems in Practice, 2003, pp 269-290 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The planning support system described in this chapter is a prototype internal migration modelling system developed for the UK’s Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions during 2000. It forms part of the Government’s drive towards evidence-based policy-making. It is designed to be run by civil servants on stand-alone desk-top computers primarily in order to gauge the likely impact on between-area migration flows of alternative economic and policy scenarios. The system is based on a two-stage representation of the migration process, the first stage predicting out-migration from each of 100 areas of the UK, and the second predicting the distribution of these migrants between destinations. A user-friendly front-end allows the alteration of the levels of the determinant variables for running scenarios and the easy visualisation of the migration impacts through tables and maps. The system is now being refined in a second phase of work for the client, which includes the preparation of a scoping report on future enhancements. The chapter outlines the policy context of this work and the client’s requirements, describes the modelling approach and the basic structure of the initial model, and presents an example of running a trial scenario.

Keywords: House Price; Policy Scenario; Prototype Model; Core City; Determinant Variable (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-24795-1_15

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