Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels

Jeff Price (), Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Rhosanna Jenkins and Erin Graham
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Jeff Price: University of East Anglia
Rachel Warren: University of East Anglia
Nicole Forstenhäusler: University of East Anglia
Rhosanna Jenkins: University of East Anglia
Erin Graham: James Cook University

Climatic Change, 2024, vol. 177, issue 3, No 13, 20 pages

Abstract: Abstract We present the results from a new framework providing an assessment of how climate change risks to natural capital accrue with warming of 1.5–4 °C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India). Unlike typical biodiversity and climate change studies, this assessment also considers landcover and population changes across a range of 17 ecosystem services. The potential impacts of climate change (alone) on natural capital at 1.5 °C is greatest in Brazil and least in Ghana. However, when population and landcover change are included, areas projected to be at high natural capital risk begin to accrue by 1.5 °C in all countries. By 2 °C, Ethiopia and Ghana show increasing areas at high risk, even though they are at low risk owing to climate alone. Thus, current impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services and changes in potential demand coupled with warming exceed changes projected by climate alone. However, this also indicates that there is adaptation potential, especially with warming of

Keywords: Climate change; Risk; Natural capital; Ecosystem services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03650-w

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