Prediction, Butterfly Effect, and Decision-Making

Christoph E. Mandl ()
Additional contact information
Christoph E. Mandl: University of Vienna

Chapter Chapter 4 in Managing Complexity in Social Systems, 2023, pp 35-45 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Prediction has become an integral part of management. Managerial decisions cannot be done without them. Any investment decision of relevance requires forecastingForecasting of crucial parameters, like interest rates and demand. Any spending on research and development requires an estimate of future needs. Or so it is believed. Yet all scientific evidence points in the same direction: long-term, science-based predictionsPrediction are impossible in both, natural science and social science. Of course, “long-term” means different time spans for different systemsSystem depending on the speed of change. The speed of deviation from a perfect cycle of the orbits of sun, EarthEarth, and moon together is so slow that long-term means thousands of years. Climate change and its impact on weather and on sea levelLevel are much faster and long-term means a couple of decades at most. Weather and an epidemic like COVID-19 change so rapidly that long-term means just a couple of days. Thus, forecasting cannot be a prerequisite of good decisionsDecision anymore. Rather it is the other way round. Understanding a decision’s impact on a system’s future behavior enables good decisions.

Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:mgmchp:978-3-031-30222-0_4

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783031302220

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-30222-0_4

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Management for Professionals from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().