Advancing a New Methodological Process

Bruce Garvey and Adam D. M. Svendsen
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Bruce Garvey: Strategy Foresight Limited
Adam D. M. Svendsen: Norwegian Defence University College (NDUC/FHS)

Chapter Chapter 14 in Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence, 2024, pp 287-308 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The methodological process being proposed in this chapter aims to comprehensively and substantially address the issue of scenario complexity. In our proposed model, we have identified some 18 key variables necessary to explore in-depth the characteristics of a ‘typical’ scenario with its inherent complexities being adequately captured. Interpreting foresight as a series of scenarios and where each scenario is seen through a different lens leads us to address the issue as a problem. However, the objective of the foresight process is not so much to solve the problem—which, indeed may not be possible, due to its complexities, interconnectivities and uncertainties, aka its ‘wickedness’—but to understand the structure of the challenge confronted so that the effects of the problem can be, at best, mitigated.

Keywords: Scenario planning methodology; Complexity; Uncertainty; Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:mgmchp:978-3-031-66115-0_14

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0_14

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