A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study Using Intelligence Engineering and Strategic Options Analysis Methods

Bruce Garvey and Adam D. M. Svendsen
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Bruce Garvey: Strategy Foresight Limited
Adam D. M. Svendsen: Norwegian Defence University College (NDUC/FHS)

Chapter Chapter 2 in Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence, 2024, pp 25-37 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter is a continuation of and from the previous one. Whereas that chapter looked at the topic from a more granular and detailed (micro case study) angle, we now look at a broader contextual approach, addressing a number of early stage strategic identifiers using the PESTLE+ (including Time) framework. This allows a review of cyber issues from a more macro-overview and generalised perspective, using just the basic PESTLE+ to provide more general insights. The chapter also presents the ‘what if?’ analysis work that was conducted following on from the identification of the contextual PESTLE + Time-based Problem Space. Following pair-wise reduction, the Problem Space is reduced to a much smaller set of viable options, forming the Solution Space. The resulting options are then explored, including a description of an ‘anchor’ (or most likely configuration-based) scenario. Alternative outlier/weak signal options, majorly different from the ‘anchor’ can be identified giving the analyst a broader range of possible outcomes—such outcomes having both ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ connotations. Once these viable solutions from a much larger Problem to Solution Space have been compiled, then the translation of such configurations into descriptive narratives is rendered. That work also allows for the use of ‘estimative/probabilistic language’ relating to their likelihood or possibility/probability of occurrence, offering for the further refining of these solutions for the decision-maker and other relevant end-users.

Keywords: Intelligence Engineering (IE); PESTLE+; Strategic Options Analysis (SOA); Problem Space (PS); Solution Space; Pair-wise Analysis (PWA); ‘Estimative/probabilistic language’ (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0_2

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